Anticipatory Management: 10 Power Tools

Anticipatory Management: 10 Power Tools

for Achieving Excellence Into The 21st Century

This essential guide puts at your fingertips a set of powerful tools to enable you to anticipate and influence external activities that affect your organization's strategies. Authors William C. Ashley and James L. Morrison lead you in applying methodologies such as the Strategic Trend Intelligence System, the Issue Vulnerability Audit, The Delphi Rating Method to place issue priorities, the Issue Accountability Model, the Issue Analysis Worksheet, and more. These tools are synthesized into the Anticipatory Management Process, your roadmap for seizing competitive advantage.
William C. Ashley and James L. Morrison (0-913869-05-8) Paperback, 290 pages, November 1995

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter One: The Need for Anticipatory Management

Yesterday's Solutions Cause Today's Problems
Expensive Wake-Up Calls
Dysfunctional Responses
Outlook for the '90s
Examples of Effective Anticipatory Management
Summary

Chapter Two: Components of Strategic Thinking

Models for Managing Organizations
Traditional, Linear Thinking
Nine-Dots Problem
The Many Worlds of Today's Managers
Strategic Thinking: Nontraditional, Holistic
Strategically Placed Holes
Summary

Chapter Three: Surfacing and Challenging Assumptions

The Paradigmatic Effect
Surfacing Implicit Assumptions
Examples of Surfaced but Unchallenged Assumptions
Summary

Chapter Four: Strategic Trend Intelligence System

Establishing a Strategic Trend Intelligence System
Defining Terms
Setting up an Environmental Scanning Workshop
Other Components of a Strategic Trend Intelligence System
Case in Point: Repetitive Stress Injuries
Sources for Scanning
Pitfalls to Avoid in Establishing and Using a Strategic Trend Intelligence System
Summary

Chapter Five: The Issue Life Cycle

The Tyranny of the Small Majority
Case in Point: The Alar Incident
The Issue Life Cycle
A Difficult Lesson to Learn
Issues of the '70s
Using the Life Cycle of Issues in Anticipatory Management
"Infoductiveness"
Summary

Chapter Six: Issues Vulnerability Audit

Conducting an Audit
Discovering Strategic Organizational Supports
Summary

Chapter Seven: Issue Briefs

Anatomy of an Issue Brief
Summary

Chapter Eight: Delphi Rating Method

Which Category?
Applying a Tool of the Futurist-The Delphi
The Delphi Rating Sheet
Choosing an Owner
Summary

Chapter Nine: The 10-Step Issue Management Process

Summary

Chapter Ten: The Issue Accountability Model

Summary

Chapter Eleven: Issue Analysis Work Sheet

Chapter Twelve: The Scenario Technique Applied to Anticipatory Management

The Scenario Technique
The Role of Scenarios
The "Inner World" of Managers
Spyglass on the Future
Creating Multiple Scenarios: One Approach
A Second Example: Telecommunications
The Product: Multiple Scenario Analysis
Summary

Chapter Thirteen: The Anticipatory Mangement Process: Putting It All Together

The Anticipatory Management Process
Summary

Chapter Fourteen: Introducing Anticipatory Management into the Organization

Links to Standing Functions
Industry Institutes and Associations
The Natural Partnership of Anticipatory Management and TQM
Anticipatory Management as Part of Something Bigger
Summary

Chapter Fifteen: Solutions to Anticipatory Management Challenges

The Field Theory
The Lofty Sails Theory
The Boiled Frog Phenomenon
The Monk From the Farthest Temple
The Organization as a Collection of Boutiques
The Functional Foxhole Theory of Management
Management by Problem Solving
Summary

Bibliography

Appendix A: Global Petroleum Trends
Appendix B: Sample Issue Abstract
Appendix C: Sears Taxonomy
Appendix D: Vulnerability Audit Results
Appendix E: Sample Issue Brief
Appendix F: Sample Delphi Rating Sheet and Consensus Reports
Appendix G: Case Studies: Issue Management in Action L.A. Department of Water and Power: Air Quality
Sears, Roebuck and Co.: Regulation of Interstate Commerce
Boeing Corporation
Georgia Power Company
Weyerhaeuser Company

Index

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